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We start today's newsletter with terrible news from the University of Virginia. Late last night, . According to school president Jim Ryan, Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr. and D'Sean Perry were fatally shot. Two other players are hospitalized for gunshot wounds, one in critical condition and the other in good condition.Local police have arrested former walk-on Christopher Darnell Jones Jr. You can keep up with the . Our thoughts are with everybody in the Virginia football community, and the family and friends of all those involved.Elsewhere in news that seems far le s important:... Key Trend: The Washington defense held the Eagles offense to a season-low in yards per carry (2.4) and succe Cam Akers Jersey s rate (37.1%) in Week 3.The Pick: Eagles Under 27.5 (-110)At 8-0, the Eagles are the only undefeated team left in the NFL. When an undefeated team like Philadelphia is playing in a spotlight game against a division foe, it's often the case that they are overvalued on the market. The casual money comes in on the undefeated team because they're undefeated! Of course, they're going to blow out the 4-5 team Jared Goff Jersey ! So we see point spreads climb into the double-digits, where they are now as the Eagles are 11-point favorites. I'd usually fade that number, but I'm not comfortable doing so tonight. I don't have enough faith in Washington's offense to score points against this Philadelphia defense. If I were to bet the Commanders, I'd be doing so because of their defense. So if I trust that unit but not the offense, the logical compromise would be to take the under on Philly's team total, so that's what I'm doing. When these teams met in Week 3, the Eagles won 24-8 -- but it was 24-0 at halftime, and all 24 of Philly's points came in the second quarter. When you look at the game, Washington did a better job slowing down the Eagles than anybody else. The Commanders held the Eagles to only 2.4 yards per carry on the ground. No other defense has held them below 3.5 yards. Philly's offensive succe s rate of 37.1% that day was its lowest of Kenny Young Jersey the season, and it sits at 47.7% in its other seven games. It's not crazy to believe a Commanders team that kept the Eagles bottled up for 45 of 60 minutes in the first meeting can do a good job again tonight..The Pick: Heat (-130) --So I said a couple of weeks ago, when the NBA season started, that I was going to try more moneyline bets to see if it would help eliminate some of the variance I'd seen in spread bets. I'm seeing encouraging results so far (how sexy was that sentence). I'm hoping it continues tonight, as I think the Heat are a slightly better value there than on the spread at home against the Suns. The Suns have the highest net efficiency rating in the NBA entering the night, even if they don't have the best record. It makes it a little scary to bet against them, especially when the Heat are only 15th in the NBA by the same metric. Still, after a slow start to the season, Miami has improved in the last couple of weeks, and the Suns are playing the final Marcus Peters Jersey game of a four-game road trip that began a week ago in Philadelphia. They've also lost three of five.The Pick: Under 225.5 (-110) -- The Bucks are the best defensive team in the league have been a top defensive team for years now. What may come as a surprise is that the Hawks are pretty good on that end of the court as well. While Atlanta only ranks 12th with a defensive efficiency of 110.5, that's a drastic improvement on last season when the Hawks ranked 26th.But there's another side to that coin. While the Hawks have improved defensively, their offense has become more inefficient. Atlanta ranks 14th in the league with an offensive efficiency of 111.7, which isn't great, but it's a lot better than where the Bucks sit. Yep, after finishing last season ranked third with an efficiency of 114.3, the Orlando Pace Jersey Bucks are currently 23rd in the league at 109.7. Tonight's total seems to be based more on last season than this season. . |
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发表于 2024-7-5 11:13:37