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LAS VEGAS In a largely quiet first few days of the NFL wagering week, the needle moved on the Bills, who play host to Dallas on Sunday evening.Buffalo -1.5 eked out to -2.5 at BetMGM as profe sionals started moving it, and then squares jumped into the fray.The sharps are definitely on the Bills, BetMGM director of trading Lamarr Mitchell says. They bet the OVER as well, bumping it from 48.5 to 50.5. So far, thats the most-bet game.By far, its the key matchup weve seen. Seems to be the hot play. Everyone is betting that, believe it or not. Everywhere else the action has been small, small, small.The ticket count is 3-to-1 in favor of the Cowboys, Mitchell reports. Unsurprising, he says, because Dallas, like San Francisco, is such a public teamWe expect Joe Public to come in with a lot more action on the Cowboys, and the ticket count will probably be 10-1 for Dallas. The sharps, meanwhile, are saying the Bills are definitely the play here.They must reconcile that theyre laying money on the leagues most-interception-prone quarterback. The Bills Josh Allen is tied with Washingtons Sam Howell atop that chart with 14 picks apiece.Moreover, a month or so Tyler Clippard Jersey ago, chatter began circulating about the proposition on Allen to throw a pick. He has had a pa s picked off in nine consecutive games, so anybody who has zeroed in on that prop has accumulated profit.Which sets up a dilemma for Mitchell. Its such a strong prop, the natural inclinationand wise busine s movewould be to increase its price.However, Mitchell needs to remain competitive to draw busine s to the companys eight Strip properties. And word has spread throughout the season about BetMGMs superb prop menu, its depth and variety, and subsequent pricing.At a competitor, Over 0.5 interceptions for Allen against Dallas is -140, or risk $140 to win $100.Were actually pounding our heads, Mitchell laughs about that particular Allen prop. The public is betting OVER, and were basically trying to stay within the market price. But the public has been beating us to it.The market says that this is an MVP-caliber quarterback who shouldnt be a turnover, or interception, machine like that. But, yeah, its a small price. The market hasnt adjusted to it, yet, but its good for the public to win.Here's a look at the best games of Week 15, including the from , and insights from Mitchell.Minnesota Vikings (7-6, 7-4-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS)Saturday, 1 p.m. ETPaycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OHJake Browning, the Bengals 27-year-old rookie quarterback, Jose Altuve Jersey lost his debut as a starter at home to Pittsburgh, 16-10. Since, hes 2-0, having gone 50-for-61, with three TDs and an interception, and hes run two in for scores.This budged from a BetMGM opener of 3.5 to 4, cro sing back over some key terrain to its current spread with Minnesota influence from Wednesday to Thursday.The Bengals are a small loser for us, right now," Mitchell said. "Browning has played like that original five-star high school recruit that he was supposed to be. Hes definitely playing at a supremely high level right now.Nick Mullens, 28, gets his first start for the Vikes. Hes 5-12 as an NFL starter, having lost his last one, at home for Cleveland in a 16-14 defeat to Las Vegas in 2021; he went 20-for-30, for 147 yards and a touchdownMore on this game: Denver Broncos (7-6, 5-7-1 ATS) at Detroit Lions (9-4, 8-5 ATS)Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ETFord Field, Detroit, Jimmy Wynn Jersey MIThe tickets are even, but money has come in at a 2-1 clip on Denver.Nothing on UNDER, Mitchell says. The Broncos defense has gotten them back into playoff contention; it isnt the same defense that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins earlier this year.The Broncos have won six of their past seven, yielding an average of 15.6 points to those foes. And they have an astounding takeaway-giveaway ratio of 15-3 in that splendid run. Since 99, theyre 2-1 in Detroit.Winning time in Denver?: Chicago Bears (5-8, 6-5-2 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (8-5, 7-5-1 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ETCleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OHThe Bears have become stingy, having allowed 5.1 yards per pa s over their past three games. Thats third in the league, behind the Jets (4.5) and Giants (4.8).Overall, Chicago has produced a very neutral 0.01 points-per-play margin in that span, while Cleveland sports a third-worst rate of -0.174.Veteran QB Joe Flacco is 1-1 in two starts for the Browns, throwing for 565 yards but completing le s than 60 percent of his attempts, with five TDs and two interceptions.Itll be 50 at kickoff, with a 41 percent chance of rain.Kansas City Chiefs (8-5, 7-6 ATS) at New England Patriots (3-10, 3-10 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ETGillette Stadium, Foxborough, MAEarly on, tickets were 4-1, money 2-1, on Kansas City. But bettors took the 10 points, then the 9 and 8.5, slicing it to 8 by Thursday morning.Mitchell believes squares will pour their money on the Chiefs when they flood into Vegas today and Friday.More on this game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7, 8-5 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (6-7, 7-6 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLambeau Field, Green Bay, WIThe Packers had won 16 consecutive December games until running into Giants QB Tommy Cutlets DeVito on Monday.A botched 2-point Green Bay run with 93 seconds left gave DeVito the opening and time to maneuver New York downfield for a field goal and 24-22 victory.The Pack giving 6 to 6.5 on the highway might have been a tall order, Mitchell says. Too much on the road. This number here, 3.5 at home in Lambeau, is probably right.Tampa has won only once in 15 regular-season trips to Lambeau, a 17-16 decision in 2005. However, the Bucs won both of the playoff games theyve played in Green Bay.Itll be 38 degrees at kickoff, heating up to 40.Dallas Cowboys (10-3, 9-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (7-6, 5-8 ATS)Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETHighmark Gerrit Cole Jersey Stadium, Orchard Park, NYDuring the Cowboys current five-game winning streak, they have eight takeaways and only three giveaways, and half of those takeaways have been picks.DaRon Bland, the Cowboys second-year defensive back out of Fresno State, leads the NFL with eight interceptions. Bland continuing Allens interception streak might be a dream prop.A temperature in the high 40s is expected at kickoff, with a 40 percent chance of rain increasing in the second half. Dallas has dropped three of its past four in Buffalo, tallying 16 total points in the three defeats.Dak for MVP?: Baltimore Ravens (10-3, 8-5 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5, 8-5 ATS)Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ETTIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FLMitchell was surprised to see Jags QB Trevor Lawrence playing last week, in a 31-27 back-and-forth defeat in Cleveland.The ankle sprain Lawrence suffered the previous week must not have been too severe. He threw 50 pa ses against the Browns, for 257 yards, three TDs and three interceptions.It was the second multi-pick game in five tilts for Lawrence.Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has had one such outing this season. In his past seven games, he has 11 TD pa ses and three picks.Its expected to be in the high 50s at kickoff, with a 39 percent likelihood of precipitation and steady 17 mph winds.Philadelphia Eagles (10-3, 7-4-2 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (6-7, 7-5-1 ATS)Monday, 8:15 p.m. ETLumen Field, Seattle, WAEarly money favored the Eagles by a 2-1 count, tickets, 3-1, bumping this spread up from 3.5. At kickoff, its expected to be in the high 40s with a 63-percent chance of rain throughout the game.I cant imagine the Eagles having three bad games in a row, Mitchell says. And Joe Public has been all over them.Seattle has dropped five of its past six, and Drew Lock is expected Carlos Beltran Jersey to get another start filling in for Geno Smith (groin). In losing at San Francisco last weekend, Lock went 22-for-31, for 269 yards, two TDs and two interceptions.A contending team losing that many in a row tends to bounce back against teams they have a decidedly big advantage against. Even with it being a cro s-country trip for the Eagles, its a tough spot for the Seahawks.Philly, however, has lost its past seven overall games to the Seahawks. And in the Emerald City, the Eagles have lost their past three by scores of 24-10, 26-15 and 31-14. If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Sporting News has editorial oversight for this content. |
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发表于 2024-7-28 11:45:32